The University of New Hampshire has released its latest Pine Tree State Poll, which is a monthly survey of public opinion in Maine. UNH has had (at best) a checkered history of polling Maine, but for those that take the survey seriously there are warning signs for Senator Susan Collins’ re-election bid inside. Most concerning for her, two-thirds of Mainers believe Collins does not deserve to be re-elected in 2026, including a majority of Republicans.
For Janet Mills the news is good. A majority of Mainers approve of Mills' performance as governor, though there is a huge partisan gap in the results: nearly all Democrats approve of her while almost all Republicans disapprove. Interestingly, when one drills down into Maine’s opinion of certain hot-button issues, voters seem to view Mills as out of touch.
Critics have pointed to UNH’s recent history of questionable results in Maine, all of which have tended to favor left-of-center politicians and policies. Polling expert Nate Silver gives UNH a B- rating, and says that it has a Mean-reverted bias of more than 2 percentage points in the Democrats’ direction. In addition to the concerns over bias, the questions asked and methodology are also consistently misleading. Still, it gives us something to work with to speculate over 2026’s Senate race in Maine, and we’re happy to take the bait.
In addition, we take a peek inside Augusta at efforts to expand Ranked Choice Voting, and a traffic surveillance bill that should cause Mainers a lot of concern.
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